Holiday season

Macy’s will win the holiday season in the United States with the biggest increase in sales among department stores

Wall Street expects Macy’s Inc to report the biggest increase in holiday sales among U.S. department stores when it reports quarterly results on Tuesday, benefiting from its investments in online business and its ability to keep its shelves. supplied.

Analysts said the company was able to keep supplies stable during the peak shopping season as it used multiple ports to receive initial shipments of apparel and accessories from overseas suppliers.

That contrasts with their expectations for rival Nordstrom Inc, as struggles at its off-price Rack division, which accounts for a third of its sales, have made Wall Street cautious about its near-term outlook.

“Nordstrom was the first digital strategy store, but Macy’s has caught up and really done more. Macy’s has taken a more disciplined, data-driven approach to managing all aspects of the business,” said retail analyst Jane Hali.

Analysts also expect Kohl’s Inc, which has seen takeover bids from activist investors, to benefit from lower discounts and its tie-up with beauty chain Sephora, but they doubt the strength of its online activity.

THE CONTEXT

In its most recent quarter, Macy’s added 4.4 million new customers, up 28% from pre-pandemic levels, with about a third returning to the brand after months. JP Morgan analysts said Macy’s was the biggest gainer in market share, with JC Penney and Belk losing ground.

Macy’s quarterly online sales have grown for nearly two years, thanks to its loyalty program which has attracted millions of young customers. It plans to build on this momentum by launching a marketplace, where third-party sellers could sell brands it doesn’t carry and help expand its customer base.

THE FUNDAMENTALS

** Analysts polled by Refinitiv expect Macy’s fourth-quarter revenue to jump 25% and profit to more than double.

** They expect Nordstrom’s sales to decline sharply from pre-pandemic levels, although this implies a 24% increase from the previous year, when it faced shipping delays.

** Kohl’s revenue is expected to jump 11% from a year earlier, but is expected to be roughly flat from pre-pandemic levels.

WALL STREET FEELING

**Macy’s current average price target implies a 35% upside at Thursday’s close, while Nordstrom and Kohl’s are both around 13% above their last close price.


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